Prospect grades backtested against actual NFL career production. Hit rates measured by top-24 positional finish across draft classes from 2017–2025.
Combined hit rates across all offensive skill positions — RB, WR, and TE — validated against NFL career outcomes from 2017–2025 draft classes.
The grading model demonstrates clear, monotonic separation across all tiers — higher grades consistently map to higher NFL hit rates. Elite+ prospects (90–100) produce top-24 career outcomes at a 91% rate, while each step down in tier shows meaningful decay in outcomes. This isn't overfitting — it's out-of-sample validation from 2017–2025.